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14:45
Jun 02
Jun 02
XLK 1ST
WTI FLIP
SPY
US10Y 1ST
QQQ
▾
HIGH
AI sector still has upside potential.
The AI trade remains the dominant market theme and has further upside. AI has the potential to replace the entire software stack, concentrating spending away from many SaaS products into a single AI context window. This justifies the current high valuations and concentration in AI-related stocks (48% of S&P 500). While risky, the AI trade is not a bubble and still has room to run.
XLK LONG
Oil prices will rise on supply disruption.
Oil prices will rise significantly because the market underestimates the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Global oil inventories have been aggressively drawn down to keep prices low, but if the closure continues beyond 30-60 days, we will hit operational minimums, leading to physical shortages and demand destruction. This will force oil prices much higher, potentially to $200 in an extreme scenario.
WTI LONG
Record IPOs may cause market peak.
The upcoming wave of mega IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) will pressure the broader market. Historically, record IPO clusters precede market peaks. With accelerated index inclusion (e.g., SpaceX into QQQ within 15 days and S&P 500 within 6 months), passive funds will be forced to sell existing index constituents to make room, causing indigestion and potential downside for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
SPY WATCH
QQQ WATCH
10-year yield to rise to 5%.
Interest rates will move higher as the economy remains robust (good ISM data, retail sales, labor market) and inflation stays elevated due to rising oil prices. The 10-year Treasury yield, currently around 4.50%, could move toward 5% by year-end.
US10Y LONG
HIGH
13:15
May 31
May 31
19:30
May 28
May 28
GLD
SMH
ITA 1ST
XLB 1ST
WTI FLIP
▾
HIGH
Long gold as safe haven.
Gold is in a strong bullish technical trend with low volatility. It serves as a store of value and a hedge against fiat debasement. Tony keeps his capital in gold as a bank and expects future fiscal deficits and military spending to reignite the gold rally.
GLD LONG
Semiconductor rally likely continue.
Semiconductors are in a powerful uptrend that shrugged off an inflation-driven rate spike. The AI narrative continues to drive the sector. Nvidia's earnings selloff was temporary and semis as a whole are making new all-time highs, suggesting the rally has further to run.
SMH WATCH
Long aerospace and defense.
Aerospace and defense is breaking out today. Given the market's sector rotation, this area is ripe to trade higher and offers alpha opportunities for the rest of the year.
ITA LONG
Long metals and mining later.
After oil prices recede meaningfully, metals and mining stocks (including gold miners and industrial miners) will benefit from lower input costs and resume their bull market. The debasement trade is not cancelled, just waiting for oil to stop dominating attention.
XLB LONG
Avoid oil, rally over.
Oil's geopolitical risk premium is fading despite the Strait of Hormuz closure. Spreads have returned to pre-conflict lows, supply is coming online, and the episode appears close to ending. Tony is abandoning the expectation of higher oil prices and pivoting away from natural resources.
WTI AVOID
Short AI IPOs at offering.
Upcoming AI IPOs (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic) will likely be priced at unsustainable highs. Insiders and early investors will sell into the offering for liquidity, making the first few days the top for years. Tony plans to short them on the IPO day.
AI IPOs SHORT
HIGH
17:45
May 26
May 26
BTC 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
MED
Bitcoin to rally after midterm elections.
Bitcoin and crypto will consolidate at current levels as long as the market remains focused on large AI IPOs and inflation fears persist. Once the inflation scare clears and the major IPOs are absorbed, likely after the midterm elections, a rally toward the end of 2026 into early 2027 is expected. Michael would be a buyer on any correction.
BTC LONG
Gold as store against debasement.
Gold is held as a large position in the portfolio to preserve purchasing power in an environment of debasement and likely further monetary expansion. It is a store of value as the Fed may be forced to cut rates or restart QE, weakening the dollar's purchasing power.
GLD LONG
MED
13:00
May 24
May 24
Milk Road Daily
10d
NOK
GLD
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Nokia benefits from 6G and Nvidia.
Nokia (NOK) is positioned to benefit from the 6G mobile infrastructure buildout. Chinese competitors have been kicked out due to security concerns, leaving American and European firms like Nokia as key players. Nvidia has invested $1 billion into Nokia to integrate AI into the 6G stack, making Nokia a second-order AI beneficiary.
NOK LONG
Dollar-cost average into gold and silver.
Gold and silver are long-term stores of value that will benefit from massive government money printing to fund AI capex. However, after the recent rally, now is a good time to dollar-cost average into precious metals rather than buying a lump sum. Building a small allocation (1-5% of portfolio) through regular purchases will pay off over the next decade.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
HIGH
14:45
May 21
May 21
Milk Road Daily
13d
SMH 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bullish on semiconductors, demand still accelerating.
Andreas is heavily invested in semiconductors (20% of portfolio) and remains bullish. He sees strong demand driven by AI, memory chips, and power semiconductors, with no signs of demand dropping. Key indicators like South Korean trade data (from SK Hynix, Samsung) are still accelerating. Micron and other executives are upbeat about scarce supply relative to demand for the next two years, giving pricing power. The semiconductor trade is crowded but the demand cycle has not turned.
SMH LONG
Bullish on S&P 500, expects further rally.
Andreas agrees with the host's suggestion that the S&P 500 could go to 8,000. He is still bullish and close to 100% invested, citing strong liquidity from the ESLR reform (freeing up ~$1.2 trillion for repo transactions) and Treasury General Account drawdown that will inject dollars into the system through June. He sees euphoric sentiment as a risk later, but not yet.
SPY LONG
HIGH
14:45
May 19
May 19
Milk Road Daily
15d
SPY 1ST
EWP 1ST
EPOL 1ST
▾
HIGH
US equities remain attractive long-term.
The US economy is resilient due to deregulation, increased bank lending, a productivity boom in manufacturing, and AI-driven earnings growth. Iran conflict hurts US growth slightly but hurts Europe and other regions much more, making the US a relative beneficiary. Investors should maintain core exposure to US equities.
SPY LONG
Short Spain on EU fragmentation risk.
Spain is the most vulnerable to EU fragmentation due to its large bilateral trade deficit with China, minimal defense spending, heavy welfare state, and reliance on US/German security. If Spain tries to leave the EU or pivots to China, it will face a rude awakening. This makes Spain a short.
EWP SHORT
Long Poland on fiscal discipline.
Poland spends the highest portion of GDP on defense (4.5%), invests heavily in education and productivity-enhancing areas rather than welfare, and remains outside the euro. It will benefit from any EU fragmentation through capital inflows and currency appreciation. Poland is a long.
EPOL LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 17
May 17
Milk Road Daily
17d
WTI
CF
MAGS 1ST
BG
▾
HIGH
Crude oil peaked, decline to $60.
Crude oil has peaked technically with negative momentum, break of trend lines, and key support at $79; under that a quick move to $60 is likely. Seasonality turns negative later in the year. The market is sniffing out a ceasefire deal that will lower oil prices.
WTI SHORT
Buy Bunge and CF on dips.
Grains and fertilizer stocks are in a cyclical uptrend that should last most of the year. Any pullback over the next month is a buying opportunity in names like Bunge and CF Industries, which offer diversification and decent returns for 2026.
CF LONG
BG LONG
MAG7 likely to stall and correct.
The MAG7 (as represented by MAGS ETF) is likely to stall in mid-May after a 14-15% rally in about five weeks. A 3-5% correction is overdue, and new positions at current levels are not attractive; buying weakness is preferred.
MAGS AVOID
HIGH
14:45
May 14
May 14
Milk Road Daily
20d
GLD FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid gold ETFs due to counterparty risk.
Do not own gold in an ETF because it is a paper claim with counterparty risk. Physical gold should be held outside the banking system in a safe jurisdiction.
GLD AVOID
Gold rises as paper money debases.
Gold will continue to rise because paper money, including the US dollar, will continue to historically debase itself to inflate its way out of an unsustainable, unprecedented debt crisis. It is not a bull market in gold; it is a bare market in paper money.
GLD LONG
HIGH
14:45
May 12
May 12
Milk Road Daily
22d
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin to $500k by 2030.
Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2030, driven by institutional adoption (e.g., Morgan Stanley allocating 2-3% of $7 trillion to crypto) and a historical trajectory similar to Amazon's early years. The current price dip is a buying opportunity as Wall Street engagement accelerates.
BTC LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 10
May 10
Milk Road Daily
24d
COPX
GLD
SILVER
Latin America
COPPER
▾
HIGH
Copper and copper miners set to outperform.
Copper could trade at multiples of current levels and is even more timely than gold or silver. Copper miners have underperformed gold miners recently, and the speaker expects outperformance to continue. The underlying copper demand and supply dynamics support a strong bull market.
COPX LONG
COPPER LONG
Gold will rise to multiples of today.
Gold is likely to trade at multiples of current levels, driven by a weakening US dollar, suppression of US interest rates, and the unsustainable US fiscal and trade deficits. The speaker is comfortable buying gold on pullbacks and sees a strong long-term upward trend.
GLD LONG
Silver to mid-triple digits on supply constraints.
Silver will trade at mid-triple digits due to severe supply constraints and increasing demand from both industrial and monetary aspects. The speaker views the current pullback as a buying opportunity and is very confident in the long-term upside.
SILVER LONG
Long Latin America as under-owned commodity region.
Latin America is one of the most under-owned and unexplored regions, with massive exposure to commodities (mining, energy, agriculture). Political shifts toward capitalist agendas are attracting foreign capital, and the region is under-weighted in emerging market indices (only ~7% vs 80% Asia). A weakening US dollar and lower US interest rates will further benefit the region. The speaker is long the whole region and expects significant inflows.
Latin America LONG
HIGH
14:45
May 07
May 07
Milk Road Daily
27d
SPY 1ST
EWJ 1ST
EEM 1ST
BTC 1ST
CF 1ST
▾
HIGH
No evidence to be bearish, stay long
The US equity market has strong breadth improvement, robust earnings, and no evidence to justify turning bearish. Despite recent fast rally and potential near-term consolidation, the trend is bullish and the market should end the year higher.
SPY LONG
Long Japan equities on dollar weakness
Japan equities are attractive for diversification given expected US dollar weakness. He likes the Japanese market as a way to play a weaker dollar and positive macro trends.
EWJ LONG
Emerging markets long on weak dollar
Emerging markets make sense as a trade given the dollar is likely to pull back to new lows, which should fuel EM performance. However, he cautions about concentration in certain country ETFs.
EEM LONG
Bitcoin buy on pullback to 70k
Bitcoin is unlikely to make new lows for 2026; a pullback to the low $70k area offers a good risk-reward buying opportunity. He now believes the lows are in and recommends using dips to add exposure.
BTC LONG
Buy agricultural stocks on dips
Agriculture and fertilizer stocks are attractive on dips; grains cycles point higher for the year, and pullbacks in Bunge (BG) and CF Industries (CF) should be bought for diversification and decent returns.
CF LONG
BG LONG
Gold to new highs into fall
Precious metals, specifically gold, have had a short-term top but will rally to new all-time highs into September/October before a major multi-year decline. He recommends staying long for the next leg higher.
GLD LONG
Crude oil peaked, bearish outlook
Crude oil has peaked technically; momentum is negative, trendlines broken, and a break below $79 WTI could lead to a rapid decline to $60. Energy stocks are likely to underperform, and seasonality turns negative.
WTI SHORT
Overweight tech, buy pullbacks
Technology, especially MAG7 and semiconductors, has rallied strongly and earnings and AI capex support further gains, though a near-term 3-5% pullback is likely. He recently went back to overweight tech and advises buying weakness.
XLK LONG
HIGH
14:45
May 05
May 05
Milk Road Daily
29d
EQNR 1ST
GLNCY
REXC 1ST
GLD
NEO.TO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Norwegian oil safe from Iran disruption
Clem is long Equinor (Norwegian state oil company) because it produces oil outside the Middle East, making it immune to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The company pays a ~3.8% dividend, providing income while holding exposure to rising oil prices. As Iran's oil industry breaks down due to tank storage filling up and forced shutdowns, non-Middle Eastern oil producers gain pricing power and strategic value.
EQNR LONG
Glencore is strategic minerals proxy
Clem owns Glencore because it is a massive, diversified miner focused on strategic and critical minerals. He views the company as a proxy for the future of resource security and critical mineral supply chains, which will be in high demand as the world reindustrializes and builds out AI infrastructure.
GLNCY LONG
Rare earth processors benefit from bottleneck
Clem is bullish on rare earth minerals due to a severe processing bottleneck controlled by China. He owns Neo Performance Minerals (Canadian rare earth processor) and holds a position in the Sprott Rare Earth ETF. The West needs to rebuild its own processing capacity, and these pure-play rare earth companies will benefit from strategic demand and reshoring.
REXC LONG
NEO.TO LONG
Dollar-cost average into gold now
Clem recommends dollar-cost averaging into gold (and precious metals) at current levels. He recently exited his gold positions but believes the long-term trend is higher due to money printing for AI capex and inflation. A systematic DCA approach avoids timing risk and builds exposure gradually, targeting a 2.5% to 5% portfolio allocation.
GLD LONG
Nokia is 6G AI infrastructure play
Clem is long Nokia because Nvidia invested $1 billion into the company to partner on 6G infrastructure with integrated AI. Nokia controls the backend of mobile phone networks, and Chinese rivals have been kicked out over security concerns, leaving Nokia as a key Western supplier. The coming 6G buildout and AI stack make Nokia a second-order beneficiary of the AI revolution.
NOK LONG
Anglo-American is a copper consolidation play
Clem likes Anglo-American because it is a pure copper play after divesting non-copper assets, and is merging with Teck Resources in Canada to further consolidate copper exposure. Copper is essential for electrification, AI data centers, and reindustrialization, making Anglo-American a focused beneficiary.
NGLOY LONG
HIGH
19:00
May 03
May 03
Milk Road Daily
1mo
QQQ
SPY
IWM
▾
HIGH
NASDAQ 100 buy signal April 10th bullish.
On April 10, 2026, the NASDAQ 100 triggered a rare bullish signal: it declined at least 12%, bottomed 8 days ago without making a lower low, and was up eight out of eight days. This pattern occurred three times historically (1985, 1986, 2024) with gains of 35.71%, 31.35%, and 15.34% within one year. Based on 100% historical success rate, Berg went long on this signal for retail accounts.
QQQ LONG
S&P 500 buy signal April 14th bullish.
On April 14, 2026, the S&P 500 triggered a bullish signal: it was down 9%, held its low for 10 days, made a new 30-day high on day 10, and its 10-day rate of change was the greatest in two years. This occurred historically in 1960, 1982, and 1998, with subsequent gains of 28.40%, 44.23%, and 31.55% within a year and maximum pullbacks under 1.3%. Berg used this signal to go long for institutional clients.
SPY LONG
Russell 2000 buy signal April 14th bullish.
On April 14, 2026, the Russell 2000 triggered a bullish signal: it was up eight out of nine days, its 10-day gain was the greatest in five years, and the S&P made a new 30-day high. This combination occurred four times historically, with a median gain of 32.08% (projecting S&P 500 to 9,222) and a minimum gain of 13.67%. The maximum historical drawdown after this signal was only 2.77%.
IWM LONG
HIGH
13:01
May 03
May 03
Milk Road Daily
1mo
QQQ
IWM
SPY
▾
HIGH
Historical signals indicate strong upside ahead
Multiple rare bullish signals triggered in April 2026 on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000. These signals include the Nasdaq being up eight out of eight days after a 12% decline, the S&P 500 holding its low for 10 days while hitting a 30-day high and recording its greatest 10-day gain in two years, and the Russell 2000 being up eight out of nine days with its greatest 10-day gain in five years. Historically, these patterns have led to median gains of roughly 30% or more within one year with very shallow drawdowns (typically under 3%). The speaker is leveraged long and believes the rest of 2026 should be bullish with minor pullbacks, projecting the S&P 500 to reach 8400–9200.
QQQ LONG
IWM LONG
SPY LONG
HIGH
14:45
Apr 30
Apr 30
Milk Road Daily
1mo
XLE 1ST
SPY 1ST
Semiconductors (SOX)
▾
HIGH
Energy stocks to drop on oil reversal.
Energy stocks have rallied sharply on oil prices near $100/barrel, but the forward futures curve shows oil dropping to $60 later in 2026/2027. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, a supply glut will drive oil lower and energy stocks will mean revert sharply. Investors should be very careful with long energy positions.
XLE AVOID
Risk of 10-15% correction this summer.
The market is overbought after a narrow rally led by semiconductors and energy; sentiment has swung from extreme bearish to extreme bullish, technical indicators are back in the 80s/90s, and midterm election uncertainty adds risk. This setup increases the probability of a 10-15% correction in the next few months (May-September).
SPY AVOID
Semiconductors overbought, will mean revert.
Semiconductor stocks have had a parabolic rally, pricing in perfection. They are extremely overbought and extended, reminiscent of a blow-off top. While not necessarily ending immediately, a significant mean reversion is likely, and investors should be cautious about holding extended positions.
Semiconductors (SOX) AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Apr 28
Apr 28
Milk Road Daily
1mo
GOLD
CORN 1ST
COPX
SILVER
EWZ
▾
HIGH
Gold will go much higher
Gold will trade at multiples of its current price driven by US dollar weakness, aggressive rate cuts, and the unsustainable US fiscal and trade deficits. The structural demand for real assets is rising amid deglobalization and geopolitical tensions.
GOLD LONG
Agricultural commodities next to rally
Agricultural commodities are the next domino after metals and energy. Underinvestment, rising energy costs, and incremental demand will push food prices higher. The DBA ETF is already breaking out, and I hold call options on it. Corn, wheat, and sugar futures are also positioned for upside.
CORN LONG
DBA LONG
WEAT LONG
sugar futures LONG
Copper to multiples, miners to outperform
Copper will trade at multiples of current levels because of electrification, AI infrastructure, and chronic underinvestment. Copper miners have underperformed gold miners but are set to outperform. I am focusing on copper miners as a top idea.
COPX LONG
COPPER LONG
Silver to triple digits
Silver will reach triple digits (mid-triple digits) due to severe supply constraints and growing industrial and monetary demand. The metal is critical for electronics and solar, and supply cannot easily respond.
SILVER LONG
Brazil bullish on commodity supercycle
Brazil is the primary beneficiary of deglobalization and the commodity supercycle. Capital inflows will accelerate due to its neutral geopolitical stance, commodity exposure, and improving political alignment with capitalist reforms. I am long the whole region and specifically bullish Brazil.
EWZ LONG
Natural gas undervalued, set to rally
Natural gas is extremely undervalued relative to oil, and the BTU spread is extreme. Gas will be a key energy source for data centers and AI infrastructure, and the market will eventually reprice it higher. Negative gas prices in the Persian Gulf are a local pipeline issue, not a demand problem.
UNG LONG
Oil service companies to benefit from drilling ramp
US oil service companies will benefit from increased drilling activity and the need for higher production as global energy shortages persist. Capital expenditure in energy has been neglected for years, and service companies are well-positioned to see significant business growth over the next 3-5 years.
XLE LONG
Fertilizers to rise with food prices
Fertilizer stocks will benefit from rising agricultural commodity prices and the domino effect across the food supply chain. I own some fertilizer names recently pulled back and see them as a good entry point.
MOO LONG
HIGH
13:01
Apr 26
Apr 26
Milk Road Daily
1mo
SPY
▾
MED
Be cautious on S&P 500.
The recent S&P 500 rally is a 99.9% percentile event driven by a temporary pause in hedge fund deleveraging and hopes for peace, not genuine new buying. Without a significant new catalyst, further upside is limited and the risk of re-escalation remains high. Therefore, investors should avoid chasing this rally and instead be prudent and cautious.
SPY AVOID
MED
14:45
Apr 23
Apr 23
Milk Road Daily
1mo
SPY 1ST
SOXX 1ST
QQQ 1ST
IWM 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 bullish with strong historical signals
The S&P 500 is in a strong bullish uptrend supported by multiple rare technical indicators: four upside gaps off the March low, an unprecedented 1-year high just 12 days after a 9% decline, and historical signals that project to 8,400-8,800 within a year. The correction ended in March and the bull market that began in April 2025 is resuming. Institutions are leveraged long and retail accounts have been 100% long since April 10th.
SPY LONG
Semiconductors leading with strong momentum
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is leading the market higher with a 38.82% gain since March lows, five upside gaps, and an impulsive breakout gap. The momentum is very strong and the sector is a core long for institutional portfolios. The move is early in a long-term uptrend.
SOXX LONG
NASDAQ 100 bullish with impulsive gaps
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has rallied 17.55% from its March low with four impulsive gaps, a cycle date low, and a new all-time high. The double top from October/January proved to be a minor correction within a continuing bull market. Institutions hold a 40% overweight position in NDX.
QQQ LONG
Russell 2000 bullish on rare momentum signal
The Russell 2000 is a 25% position for institutions. A rare signal triggered: Russell up 8 out of 9 days with its greatest 10-day gain in 5 years, combined with S&P 500 at a new 30-day high. Historical precedents project a median gain of 32.8% over the next year, with minimal drawdowns. Small-cap strength confirms broad market participation.
IWM LONG
HIGH
17:51
Apr 21
Apr 21
Milk Road Daily
1mo
XLI
SPY 1ST
ON 1ST
MSFT 1ST
foret 1ST
▾
HIGH
Industrials breaking out, positive for market.
Industrial stocks are breaking out and look phenomenal, with the highest correlation to the S&P 500. Their strong performance is a positive signal for the broader market, though he does not currently own any.
XLI WATCH
Bullish on S&P 500 and NASDAQ due to momentum.
Markets are at new all-time highs with strong momentum thrusts, all sectors trading above their 200-day moving averages, and technical indicators like the 120-day Williams percent R showing bullish momentum thrusts. The uptrend is supported by strong forward earnings and broad market participation.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
Buying stocks on technical breakouts and uptrends.
He is buying individual stocks that exhibit uptrend behavior, breakouts above moving averages, or deeply oversold conditions based on technical analysis. Specifically, he mentions buying 'foret', Cadence Design Systems, Brookfield, Microsoft, and ON Semiconductor, citing breakouts and retests of key moving averages.
ON LONG
MSFT LONG
foret LONG
BEP LONG
CDNS LONG
Accumulating Bitcoin at oversold support levels.
He is accumulating Bitcoin at around $67,000 because it is at the 200E moving average cloud support (between $60,000 and $68,000) and the 18-month Williams percent R is oversold, indicating an accumulation zone. He sold at $97,000 and bought back 20% at $67,000.
BTC LONG
Buying fastest horses in debasement trade.
He believes in the debasement trade due to monetary debasement and wants to own the 'fastest horses in the race': Bitcoin, technology stocks, semiconductors, high beta stocks, growth stocks, and mega caps. This is his broad thematic approach to asset allocation.
IWF LONG
MGC LONG
SMH LONG
XLK LONG
SPHB LONG
HIGH
18:30
Apr 19
Apr 19
Milk Road Daily
1mo
SILVER 1ST
GOLD 1ST
▾
MED
Gold and silver could sustain high levels.
When a bear market causes pain and people realize that printing more money doesn't help, gold and silver could go to a new reality where they reach a level and stay up there.
SILVER LONG
GOLD LONG
MED
14:00
Apr 19
Apr 19
Milk Road Daily
1mo
SIL
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Silver miners to outperform gold miners.
Silver miners are undervalued relative to the metal and offer leveraged exposure. The ratio of the silver miners ETF (SIL) to the gold miners ETF (GDX) has broken out, indicating silver miners will outperform gold miners. This technical breakout aligns with the fundamental thesis on silver and suggests investors are starting to recognize the value in miners, which are historically cheap compared to the price of the metal they extract.
SIL LONG
Silver breaking out to $300-$500 by summer.
Silver is in a major breakout from a 50-year range, driven by persistent supply deficits, exploding industrial demand (especially from solar production in China and India), its monetary heritage as 'poor man's gold', and technical factors. Historical precedents from other metals like copper and lead show that such breakouts from multi-decade ranges can lead to rapid, multi-fold price increases within a few quarters. Additionally, growth in the M2 money supply since previous silver peaks implies a much higher fair value. The ongoing monetary bull market in gold provides a supportive backdrop, and the silver/gold ratio breakout indicates silver will outperform.
SILVER LONG
HIGH
14:45
Apr 16
Apr 16
Milk Road Daily
1mo
WTI
SPY 1ST
GOLD
DBC
▾
HIGH
Hold gold and commodities for diversification.
Traditional finance training has taught that gold and commodities are terrible assets, but they are storeholds of wealth and provide diversification in environments where stocks and bonds do poorly. Investors should hold them in their portfolios to prepare for higher inflation and conflict environments, as seen in 2022 and again in March 2026.
WTI LONG
GOLD LONG
DBC LONG
Be cautious on the S&P 500 rally.
The recent rally in the S&P 500 is a 99.9 percentile event driven by deleveraging and hopes for peace, but it is not persistent. The market is pricing in a benign outcome from the war, but there is a non-zero probability of re-escalation. Investors should be prudent and cautious, and not leg into the rally at these levels.
SPY AVOID
HIGH
14:45
Apr 14
Apr 14
Milk Road Daily
1mo
JJU 1ST
COPPER 1ST
CRAK
DBC 1ST
CANE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Aluminium supply shortage from energy issues.
Aluminium is energy-intensive, and production in the Middle East is affected by the Strait closure, leading to short supply and price increases.
JJU LONG
Copper demand from energy transition supports prices.
Copper shows resilience due to supply tightness and strong demand from the energy transition, such as electrification and data centers; it bounced off the 200-day moving average, indicating underlying support and potential for a long-term bull market.
COPPER LONG
Diesel and jet fuel shortages raise prices.
Middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel are in short supply because Middle East crude oil, ideal for refining these products, is not reaching refineries, driving prices up significantly in Europe and Asia.
CRAK LONG
CRAK LONG
Broad commodity ETFs for long-term exposure.
For investors new to commodities, starting with broad exposure through commodity ETFs is advisable due to the long-term bull market and sector rotation; the Bloomberg Commodity Index has shown strong returns.
DBC LONG
Energy costs push up food commodity prices.
Higher energy prices are driving up food commodity prices through biofuel links and production costs; for example, soybean oil, sugar, and cotton have seen price increases due to ethanol production and synthetic fiber substitution.
CANE LONG
SOYB LONG
BAL LONG
Oil supply disruption keeps prices high.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has caused a major oil supply disruption, tightening the market and leading to high spot prices, backwardation in futures, and prolonged elevated prices due to logistical challenges and sustained demand.
BRENT LONG
WTI LONG
Fertilizer shortages from gas supply issues.
Fertilizer production in the Middle East is hit because it relies on natural gas, which is in short supply due to the Strait closure, leading to high prices and reduced availability, especially during planting season.
MOO LONG
HIGH
13:00
Apr 12
Apr 12
Milk Road Daily
1mo
REMX
VIX 1ST
WTI
ALTCOINS 1ST
BTC
▾
HIGH
China's rare earth dominance is a key strength.
China has a stranglehold on rare earths and solar power, which gives it significant leverage in the global economy. This control over critical inputs became a game-changer in trade relations, and it represents a key strength for China in the fight for AI and economic supremacy.
REMX WATCH
Long VIX as a hedge until 30.
Long VIX as a hedge against long positions until the VIX gets up to 30 on some of the later contracts, as the market is in a repricing phase with expected volatility.
VIX LONG
US energy strength provides geopolitical leverage.
The US has a strategic strength in energy, specifically oil, which gives it leverage in geopolitical negotiations with China, especially as the price of oil in Asia is significantly higher than WTI crude. This energy strength is a key part of the competition for AI supremacy and economic dominance.
WTI LONG
AI destroys all but the strongest moats.
AI is a disruptive force that will destroy any business or asset that cannot build a sustainable moat. The only reliable moats are religion, gold, and Bitcoin, making other innovations and narratives, including most altcoins and software companies, unreliable long-term investments.
ALTCOINS AVOID
Bitcoin will decouple and outperform after crisis.
Bitcoin is the chosen store of value inside the digital economy, with a great Sharpe ratio. It will be the asset of choice for returns when traditional growth assets like software and the Mag 7 fail, and it will decouple and rally the hardest after a liquidity crisis and subsequent government rescue, especially as stablecoin volumes and market cap explode, providing new infrastructure.
BTC LONG
Software and Mag 7 are dead assets.
Software and the Mag 7 are a dead asset class that will not provide future growth returns. As AI disrupts everything and growth needs shift, these assets will not bounce back, making room for other assets like Bitcoin to outperform.
IGV AVOID
HIGH
14:59
Apr 09
Apr 09
Milk Road Daily
1mo
SIL
WTI
BTC
TLT
SILVER
▾
Speaker said the silver miners ETF (SIL) has broken out versus gold miners (GDX) on spread charts, favoring silver miners for outperformance. Silver's bullish breakout implies miners will benefit; technicals show SIL is historically undervalued relative to the metal and will catch up. LONG because silver miners are dirt cheap compared to silver and poised to outperform gold miners amid the metals bull market. If silver price correction is deeper than expected, hurting miner profitability.
SIL LONG
medium-term.
Speaker said oil is in a bull market but overbought due to geopolitical headlines; advises waiting for a selloff to around $80 before buying. Oil lagged the broader commodity complex initially, now surged on news, so late buyers may get "gut kicked," creating a better entry point after correction. WATCH for a correction to join the bull market, as current prices are not optimal for entry. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, driving prices higher without a significant correction.
WTI WATCH
short-term.
Speaker stated Bitcoin is in a congestion pattern around $16k-$18k after a sharp drop, not a bottom, and may roll over again through $60k. Momentum factors showed vulnerability prior to the drop; speculative action has synced with NASDAQ, indicating further downside as the "dream" fades. SHORT because it's not a monetary alternative and likely to decline further after the congestion phase. If Bitcoin breaks out above the congestion zone, invalidating the bearish momentum structure.
BTC NEUTRAL
short-term to medium-term.
Speaker described 30-year T-bond futures as "sick," with yields pressing up and prices depressed despite Fed buying, indicating potential panic and a bigger crisis than 2008. Long-term bond market weakness reflects deeper government debt issues; momentum breakdown suggests further price declines as yields remain high. SHORT on bond prices due to ongoing anemic performance and risk of a debt crisis unfolding. If the Fed aggressively expands bond purchases or cuts rates, driving yields down.
TLT NEUTRAL
medium-term.
Speaker explicitly stated silver has broken a 50-year price range and could reach $300-$500 by summer due to monetary factors, technical breakout, and demand from solar production. Breakout from long-term compression, coupled with money supply growth (M2) and persistent supply-demand deficits, leads to a tantrum-like surge into a new reality. LONG because of high upside potential from overcompensation after decades of suppression, with speed typical of such market emergences. If monetary conditions tighten abruptly or demand for solar/silver falters unexpectedly.
SILVER LONG
short-term to medium-term (by summer).
Speaker pointed out relative weakness in the financial sector (e.g., XLF vs. S&P), with breakdowns in Visa and Mastercard, indicating underlying credit problems and anemic performance. Financial sector is core to the economy; technical weakness on spread charts reflects embedded errors from easy money, signaling systemic risks not widely watched. AVOID because the sector is vulnerable and likely to underperform, posing a hidden risk amid broader market topping. If central bank interventions or regulatory actions stabilize the sector quickly.
XLF AVOID
medium-term to long-term.
14:45
Apr 07
Apr 07
Milk Road Daily
1mo
GOLD
▾
Jeffrey Christian explicitly stated that gold's bull run is not over and "it's going to go another leg higher," citing that despite recent pullbacks, prices remain at record highs and the underlying economic and political issues driving demand have worsened. Investment demand for gold is fueled by investor concerns about global economic and political stability, which are deteriorating, leading to sustained or increased buying from a broad base of investors, including record physical purchases. Direction is LONG because the fundamental drivers of gold demand are strong and persistent, with expectations of higher prices driven by ongoing uncertainties and potential crises. A significant improvement in global economic conditions or geopolitical stability could reduce safe-haven demand, limiting price appreciation.
GOLD LONG
medium-term to long-term, as Christian forecasts higher prices extending into 2026 and possibly 2027, with a likely rise in the latter part of 2026.
14:00
Apr 05
Apr 05
Milk Road Daily
1mo
GOLD
▾
Steven Van Metre stated that gold is not rising despite increased volatility, which is unusual, and suggested forced selling—such as from early 401k redemptions—could be causing this. If consumers are financially stressed and need liquidity, they may sell gold to avoid tax penalties on retirement accounts, creating downward pressure on gold prices. This setup warrants caution and monitoring, as gold might experience a short-term drop despite bullish long-term parallels, making it a volatile asset to watch. If forced selling does not materialize or if strong demand from other drivers (e.g., central banks) supports gold, the expected drop may not occur.
GOLD WATCH
short-term
13:45
Apr 02
Apr 02
Milk Road Daily
2mo
XLB 1ST
GOLD
SILVER
▾
Clark is bullish on gold and silver mining stocks, has been aggressively buying during the correction, and highlights their high margins (over 60% for producers). Mining stocks mirror gold and silver prices but are more volatile; they are undervalued relative to broader equities (e.g., NASDAQ ratio), and potential sector rotation could drive inflows. LONG due to attractive valuations, high profitability, and expected investor migration from weakening broad markets into the mining sector. If gold and silver prices decline further, mining stocks could face amplified losses due to operational leverage.
XLB LONG
medium-term to long-term.
Jeff Clark states that gold corrections are normal in bull markets, with historical averages of 10-12%, and the current ~16% pullback does not signal the end of the bull market. He cites multiple potential catalysts for higher prices, including recession, money printing, lower interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, while central bank buying provides support. LONG because macro and fundamental factors align for continued bullish momentum, with the bull market still early in its typical cycle. If gold breaks key technical levels or expected catalysts fail to materialize, such as sustained rate hikes or reduced central bank demand.
GOLD LONG
medium-term to long-term.
Clark notes silver is more volatile than gold due to its smaller market size and has experienced a deeper correction, but he sees this as a buying opportunity. Silver tends to follow gold's direction but with amplified moves; the sell-off has opened attractive entry points for investors. LONG because the silver bull run is expected to resume, leveraging volatility for potential gains, and Clark has recommended buying specific silver stocks. Further downside if gold weakens or if industrial demand for silver disappoints.
SILVER WATCH
medium-term to long-term.
14:45
Mar 31
Mar 31
Milk Road Daily
2mo
EEM 1ST
BRENT
LNG
▾
Speaker states emerging markets and the global south "will bear the vast brunt of this" and that high energy prices could "morph from a consumer crisis to a full-blown fiscal crisis and government bankruptcies." These economies are highly price-sensitive and often subsidize fuel. Sustained high oil prices will force an impossible choice between passing on costs (causing severe demand destruction and social unrest) or maintaining subsidies (worsening fiscal deficits and sovereign debt sustainability). The energy crisis poses a direct and disproportionate threat to the economic and fiscal stability of emerging markets. A rapid and sustained collapse in oil prices due to conflict resolution or a deeper-than-expected global recession.
EEM AVOID
Short to medium-term.
Speaker explicitly states Brent at $115 is "too low for what's going on" and a price of "$130 minimum is justified." The historic supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure (~6 mb/d net loss) cannot be quickly offset. The physical tightness has not yet reached Western markets, and prices must rise high enough to destroy the necessary demand to balance the market. Current prices do not reflect the severity of the structural deficit, implying significant upside as the physical shortage manifests globally. A swift, durable resolution to the conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
BRENT WATCH
Short to medium-term.
Qatar declared force majeure on LNG contracts after an attack on its facility, with the CEO stating it could mean a 17% loss of Qatari LNG export capacity for up to five years. The attack was part of the regional conflict. Damage to major liquefaction infrastructure is not quickly repairable, removing a significant chunk of global LNG supply for an extended period. This represents a structural, long-duration supply shock to the global LNG market, warranting close monitoring for sustained price impacts and supply chain dislocations. Faster-than-expected repair of the damaged facilities or a rapid de-escalation of the conflict preventing further attacks.
LNG WATCH
Medium to long-term.
13:00
Mar 29
Mar 29
Milk Road Daily
2mo
XLB
GOOGL
XLE 1ST
XLK FLIP
AMZN
▾
The speaker cited copper and silver prices "going through the roof" and stated there is not enough copper or silver for AI demand. AI infrastructure requires vast amounts of metals for wiring, electronics, and other components, creating a structural shortage against finite supply. Long non-energy minerals due to a persistent supply-demand deficit driven by the physical build-out of AI. Technological innovation finds material substitutes or a recession crushes industrial demand.
XLB LONG
long-term
The speaker explicitly named Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft as "hyperscalers" and stated they are "going to have a really hard time." These companies are "built on code" and are the primary spenders on AI infrastructure, facing massive capital expenditure, potential margin pressure, and disruption from the very AI they are funding. Avoid these stocks due to their dual exposure as legacy software/platform businesses and capital-intensive AI infrastructure builders in a disruptive period. Their cloud and advertising businesses prove more resilient than expected, or they achieve dominant monetization of new AI services.
GOOGL AVOID
AMZN AVOID
MSFT AVOID
META AVOID
medium to long-term
The speaker stated we are entering a "decade" of underinvestment in the hardware needed for AI, and energy prices are going up. Infinite AI demand requires massive energy for compute and infrastructure, but supply has been underinvested, creating a structural supply-demand imbalance. Long energy minerals due to sustained, rising demand from AI infrastructure build-out against constrained supply. A severe global economic slowdown reduces overall energy demand, or alternative energy sources scale faster than expected.
XLE LONG
long-term
The speaker stated to "short, anything built on code" and called software a "dead asset" that will face a structural headwind. AI is directly disruptive to software business models by automating tasks and reducing the need for certain software, leading to multiple compression even if earnings grow. Avoid the technology services (software) sector due to a broken growth narrative and structural disruption from AI. Software companies successfully pivot and monetize AI tools faster than they are disrupted by them.
XLK LONG
long-term
The speaker stated he is "focused on Bitcoin" because "money is going to chase returns" and returns will "come from that asset class." In an environment of multiple compression and disappointing returns in traditional fiat assets (equities, credit), capital will rotate to alternative stores of value with asymmetric return potential. Long Bitcoin as a beneficiary of capital rotation away from compressed traditional assets. A sharp, prolonged risk-off market event causes correlated selling across all speculative assets, including crypto.
BTC LONG
medium to long-term
14:45
Mar 26
Mar 26
Milk Road Daily
2mo
USO
XTN 1ST
XLI 1ST
▾
The speaker states the current oil price impact on trucking is a "non-event" and that larger carriers can make more money when fuel prices are higher due to fuel surcharge passthrough mechanisms. Fuel surcharges mitigate ~80% of the cost impact for large, contract-based carriers. The consumer impact (~$350/year more for gasoline) is seen as insufficient to significantly curb goods consumption volume. While a headline risk, current oil price levels do not constitute a material bearish headwind for the trucking industry or the broader goods economy; the impact is neutral to slightly positive for large carriers. A sustained breakout above $140 WTI, which would test the stated pain threshold for the US goods economy.
USO NEUTRAL
short-term
The speaker is "incredibly bullish" on trucking, citing re-industrialization driving higher demand and policy-driven tightening of driver supply. The truckload rejection index has surged to 14% (from 4% a year ago), indicating carriers are gaining pricing power. Proposed immigration laws could remove ~200k drivers, structurally reducing capacity. The confluence of rising industrial demand and a constrained supply of drivers creates a favorable setup for significant rate increases and operating leverage for trucking companies, making the sector investable. A severe economic recession that collapses goods demand volume, overriding the supply constraints.
XTN LONG
medium-term
Flatbed trucking demand is "on fire" with rejection rates as high as 50% (vs. ~4% a year ago for the broader market), decoupled from the weak housing market. This surge is driven by industrial activity in the Midwest (steel, aluminum, heavy machinery) related to manufacturing plant construction, data centers, and energy infrastructure, which shows up in freight data months before other indicators. The flatbed segment is a leading, high-confidence indicator of a burgeoning US industrial renaissance, implying strong demand for carriers specializing in this equipment. A sudden halt or reversal in industrial capex and construction spending.
XLI LONG
short-term to medium-term
14:45
Mar 24
Mar 24
Milk Road Daily
2mo
ETH 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
Speaker states "ETH outperforms now" and forecasts the ETH/BTC cross to rise from ~3% to 4% by end-2026 (implying $4K ETH if BTC is $100K). His 2030 target is $40,000 ETH. Outperformance thesis is based on TradFi and institutional builders preferring Ethereum's Layer 1 for initial deployments (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL) due to its security and reliability. Increased on-chain activity from stablecoins, tokenization (money market funds, equities), and other use cases will drive fees and demand for ETH. LONG for significant absolute upside and explicit outperformance versus Bitcoin. Failure of the predicted tokenization wave to materialize, or a shift in institutional preference to other Layer 1 or Layer 2 networks that reduces Ethereum's activity capture.
ETH LONG
medium-term (end of 2026) and long-term (2030).
Speaker explicitly states he is "sticking with 100K forecasts for Bitcoin by the end of this year" and later provides a long-term (2030) forecast of $500K. The thesis is supported by continued ETF inflows returning, the institutionalization of the asset class bringing in new capital, and digital assets looking through near-term macro noise (like potential rate hikes from an oil shock) to a medium-term cutting cycle. LONG due to explicit price targets representing ~50% upside from current levels by year-end and significant long-term appreciation. A more severe oil price shock that forces sustained hawkish central bank policy, negatively impacting risk assets. Also, failure of regulatory clarity to further institutionalize the asset class.
BTC LONG
medium-term (end of 2026) and long-term (2030).
18:45
Mar 20
Mar 20
Milk Road Daily
2mo
TSLA 1ST
PENDLE 1ST
ETH FLIP
COW 1ST
SOL 1ST
▾
Martin held TESLA for its AI and robotics growth, specifically robo-taxis entering production and Optimus humanoid robots with improved capabilities. Tesla's advancements in autonomous vehicles and robotics may drive stock price appreciation independent of economic cycles. LONG due to long-term growth drivers and product execution. Economic downturn could affect demand, or execution delays might slow growth.
TSLA LONG
long-term
Martin sold all positions in COW and PENDLE, citing lack of significant buyback pressure for COW and low revenues for PENDLE due to depressed yields and trading volumes. In a risk-off macro environment, tokens without strong buybacks or with business dependencies on market sentiment are likely to underperform. AVOID because fundamental weaknesses make them unattractive holdings near-term. If market sentiment improves or buybacks increase, these tokens could recover.
PENDLE AVOID
COW AVOID
short to medium-term
Martin sold 56% of ETH and 63-64% of SOL, stating they have high premiums, no near-term catalysts, and ETH trades on narrative rather than fees, while SOL's high fee multiples may not hold in tough times. With rising oil prices and macro uncertainty, investors may ignore infrastructure narratives, leading to underperformance. AVOID due to lack of immediate drivers and vulnerability to macro headwinds. If macro conditions improve or new catalysts emerge, ETH and SOL could outperform.
ETH AVOID
SOL AVOID
short to medium-term
Martin held HYPE and LIGHTER, perpetuals protocols that can benefit from increased volatility, noting HYPE's real-world asset volumes surpassed crypto volumes. Even in down markets, volatility drives trading volumes and revenues for perpetuals exchanges, supporting token value. LONG due to revenue resilience and growth potential from volatility. If volatility decreases or competition intensifies, revenues could drop.
LIT WATCH
HYPE LONG
medium-term
Martin held PUMP due to resilient revenues and a high buyback multiple ($500M annual buybacks on a $1.3B market cap). Significant buyback pressure relative to market cap provides price support and potential upside regardless of market conditions. LONG because the buyback multiple indicates strong fundamental value capture. If revenues decline or buybacks are reduced, the thesis weakens.
PUMP LONG
medium to long-term
18:45
Mar 19
Mar 19
Milk Road Daily
2mo
XLK 1ST
▾
The speaker argued the $127 trillion global equity market will 100% tokenize for 24/7 trading. This will require stablecoins as the settlement asset, creating an "incredible flywheel" that increases stablecoin supply and fuels Layer-1 ecosystems and DeFi. The next evolution of markets is tokenization, which necessitates 24/7, global trading rails. Crypto infrastructure (stablecoins, smart contract platforms) is the only viable settlement and operational layer for this shift. LONG because tokenization is framed as an inevitable, massive-scale adoption driver that directly monetizes into the core crypto stack (stablecoins, L1s, DeFi). Traditional finance develops a competing, non-crypto native tokenization and settlement system that bypasses public blockchains and stablecoins.
XLK LONG
long-term
18:45
Mar 18
Mar 18
Milk Road Daily
2mo
TLT 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
Speaker states bonds "have been terrible... and atrocious from a real return perspective," and are "unlikely to get better given political incentives, social incentives, and that all the appetite there is for deficit spending, entitlement spending, [and] all those big print catalysts." The political and social imperative for continued deficit spending and the high likelihood of a future "big print" fiscal event will perpetuate currency debasement, making the nominal returns of bonds insufficient to preserve purchasing power. AVOID because the structural macro environment is hostile to bondholders, offering poor real returns. A sudden, sustained shift to fiscal austerity and monetary restraint.
TLT AVOID
Medium-term to long-term.
Speaker states Bitcoin is a "great fundamental story and an attractive valuation" at ~5% of gold's market cap, predicts $1M BTC between 2030-2035, and cites Morgan Stanley's ETF launch as a major bullish institutional signal. In a macro environment of perpetual inflation, deficit spending, and potential capital controls, traditional assets (real estate, gold, equities, bonds) are structurally flawed or overvalued. Bitcoin's fixed supply, portability, and growing institutional adoption as a persistent portfolio allocation make it a superior store of value. LONG due to compelling macro hedge characteristics, massive relative valuation gap to gold, and accelerating institutional adoption embedding it as a core asset. A collapse in institutional adoption narrative; severe global regulatory crackdown.
BTC LONG
Long-term (3-10 years).
18:45
Mar 17
Mar 17
Milk Road Daily
2mo
SOL
▾
Mason states Solana is making important strides on fundamental metrics, leading all chains in adjusted stablecoin transaction volume for the first time in Feb 2024, indicating high capital velocity and real usage for payments and smaller-scale transactions. This dominance in a core financial use case (payments) suggests growing adoption and a divergence in use case from Ethereum, which still dominates larger institutional/capital markets flows. The strong and improving fundamental data contrasts with weak price action, presenting a potential opportunity as the market may start to value Layer 1s based more on usage and transaction revenue. Broader crypto market correlation continues to suppress price despite strong chain-specific fundamentals.
SOL WATCH
Medium-term to long-term.
18:43
Mar 16
Mar 16
Milk Road Daily
2mo
IREN 1ST
ETH 1ST
BTC 1ST
MSTR
GLD 1ST
▾
The data centers for inference have to be really, really close to the place that you're actually going to do the inference... they're land focused and have been land focused for 15 to 20 years. Bitcoin miners that have already secured physical land and massive power contracts are perfectly positioned to pivot into AI data centers. The infrastructure required for the upcoming AGI tech boom is highly constrained by power availability, making these legacy mining assets incredibly valuable. LONG. These companies are transitioning from volatile crypto mining plays into highly lucrative, infrastructure-backed AI data center plays. The AI infrastructure build-out could face regulatory hurdles regarding power consumption, or the companies may fail to secure the necessary AI inference contracts.
IREN LONG
CLSK LONG
medium-term
I am hyper bearish on ETH. It has pivoted a thousand times. If you look at the code base, it's a labyrinth of code. Ethereum's reliance on Layer 2 and Layer 3 solutions effectively reverts transactions to centralized databases, stripping away the core benefits of being on-chain. While it currently retains developer liquidity, its technical foundation is flawed compared to purpose-built chains. AVOID. The technical debt and high gas fees make it a fundamentally weak long-term hold despite its current first-mover advantage in liquidity. Developers and liquidity may never migrate away from Ethereum, cementing its status as the default financial rail regardless of its clunky code.
ETH AVOID
long-term
Whether Bitcoin goes to 25 or 55, the reason that I think it's fundamentally worth it is because I understand what the tech gives capacity and ability to do. Bitcoin provides a trustless, permissionless financial escape hatch for individuals facing high inflation or hostile regimes. As global monetary systems show weakness, this utility creates a hard floor and long-term appreciation for the asset, independent of short-term price action. LONG. It is a 10 to 20-year generational wealth preservation asset that bypasses traditional financial controls. Quantum computing advancements could theoretically break the Elliptical Curve Cryptography (ECC) used in Bitcoin wallets, exposing early wallets to theft.
BTC LONG
long-term
Anytime you dip below into the 0.8s or 0.7s, meaning that the market cap is 30% cheaper than the holdings of Bitcoin that are actually inside the company, you're buying your Bitcoin at 70% of the value. MicroStrategy acts as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy that offers traditional finance tools (like options) and international tax advantages that spot Bitcoin does not. When the stock trades at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV), investors can acquire Bitcoin exposure at a significant markdown while benefiting from the company's accretive share issuance strategy. LONG. It provides superior financial tooling and occasional arbitrage opportunities compared to holding spot Bitcoin directly. You are trusting a centralized actor to custody the Bitcoin, exposing you to corporate governance and counterparty risks.
MSTR LONG
medium-term
I don't hold any gold candidly... Gold is hard to travel with and I've got like 5% of a doomer in me. In a true crisis scenario, physical gold is susceptible to confiscation and is difficult to transport across borders. Furthermore, gold has an expanding supply inflation rate (1.25% to 1.35%) compared to Bitcoin's decreasing inflation rate (0.4% post-halving), making Bitcoin the superior store of value. AVOID. Capital allocated to gold for hedging purposes is better deployed into Bitcoin for enhanced security, transportability, and scarcity. A catastrophic global grid failure or internet outage would render Bitcoin inaccessible, whereas physical gold would retain its barter value.
GLD AVOID
long-term
14:00
Mar 15
Mar 15
Milk Road Daily
2mo
JPM
C
XYZ
BTC
KRE
▾
"Smaller banking outfits that don't have a government guarantee, that have a lot of these consumer loans as a higher percentage of their balance sheet than say a JP Morgan or a City Bank... leads people to move their money out of the small banks into JP Morgan." As regional banks face solvency issues due to consumer loan defaults, panic will set in. Depositors and investors will flee regional banks and consolidate their capital into systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) that have implicit government guarantees and more diversified balance sheets. LONG. Large money center banks will win significant market share and deposit inflows as regional banks fail. A broader systemic financial crisis drags down all equities, including large-cap banks, in a general liquidity drain before the Fed pivots.
JPM LONG
C LONG
medium-term
"There going to be more companies like Block who fire large swath of their workforce and they're rewarded by the markets. The stock pump 20% when you announce them. So the CEOs and management get richer if they fire all their workers and replace them from AI." Companies that aggressively adopt AI to replace back-office and knowledge workers will see immediate margin expansion. The market is currently rewarding these cost-cutting measures with higher valuations, incentivizing management teams to execute these layoffs. LONG. Tech and payment companies executing aggressive AI-driven layoffs will see short-to-medium term stock appreciation. Long-term revenue decline if the broader macroeconomic environment deteriorates due to the very job losses these companies are creating, leading to lower consumer spending on their platforms.
XYZ LONG
short-term
"Bitcoin is saying there's a liquidity issue. There is this incipient banking crisis waiting to happen... That's when they have the political cover to do whatever they want, which is to print a lot of money." Bitcoin acts as a forward-looking indicator for global liquidity. While it may suffer short-term volatility during the initial market panic and banking failures, the inevitable Fed response—massive QE to bail out the banking system and unemployed voters—will dramatically debase fiat currency, sending Bitcoin significantly higher. LONG. Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against the fiat debasement that will follow the AI-induced banking crisis. Bitcoin gets caught in a severe cross-asset liquidation event (degrossing) and suffers a massive drawdown before the Fed actually pivots to QE.
BTC LONG
long-term
"The Fed cannot act until we get the real market signal... the regional bank index is down 45%. There's banks that are getting smoked 15-20% every session in the United States. That's the signal." AI-driven job losses in the knowledge sector will lead to widespread consumer loan defaults. Regional banks are disproportionately exposed to these loans and lack the government backstops of larger institutions, making them highly vulnerable to a solvency crisis before the Fed is politically able to step in. SHORT. Regional banks will suffer severe drawdowns as loan defaults rise and the Fed delays intervention. The Fed intervenes earlier than expected, or AI job displacement is slower and less severe than predicted, allowing consumers to continue servicing their debts.
KRE NEUTRAL
medium-term
14:00
Mar 14
Mar 14
Milk Road Daily
2mo
ETH 1ST
SUI 1ST
HYPE
SOL 1ST
▾
I would say ETH and Salana are probably better bets than Bitcoin at this moment in time from a pure multiple basis. Ethereum and Solana are currently sitting near their 2024 lows, whereas Bitcoin is trading above its 2024 low. Because upcoming regulatory clarity will likely favor broad infrastructure platforms over niche applications, buying these major Layer 1s at cyclical support levels offers superior multiple expansion and risk-adjusted upside compared to Bitcoin. LONG ETH and SOL as foundational ecosystem bets with favorable relative valuations. Regulatory clarity could unexpectedly penalize these networks, or Bitcoin could continue to absorb all market liquidity, leaving altcoins stagnant.
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
medium-term
They have a really cogent and like very thoughtful approach to how to engage on the kind of more institutional adoption. Institutional capital is the next major growth vector for crypto markets. Layer 1 networks that proactively build compliant, institution-friendly infrastructure will capture outsized inflows once regulatory frameworks are established, allowing them to steal market share from older networks. LONG SUI as an emerging Layer 1 ecosystem positioned specifically for institutional capital. The network fails to attract sufficient developer activity or user liquidity to compete with entrenched incumbents like Ethereum and Solana.
SUI LONG
long-term
I think creating trading windows where onchain rails can provide validated and verifiable truth of activity taken outside of normal windows is a very very exciting principle and big big value ad. Traditional markets are restricted by standard trading hours, leaving risk managers unable to hedge exposure during weekend geopolitical events (like trading oil during a conflict). On-chain perpetual platforms that offer 24/7 liquidity solve this massive institutional pain point, positioning them to generate massive cash flows. WATCH HYPE as a highly profitable cash-flow business pioneering out-of-hours trading for traditional assets. US regulatory agencies could crack down on decentralized perpetual exchanges, restricting access for US participants and severely limiting trading volume.
HYPE WATCH
long-term
18:45
Mar 13
Mar 13
Milk Road Daily
2mo
BTC
COIN 1ST
▾
The range or the zone will be around you know 76k to 86k which is where this metric is right now. Around that I should expect we hit resistance and then a correction happens if we are still in a bare market like we are right now. The current upward price action is a relief rally driven by exhausted selling pressure (extreme unrealized losses) rather than a new wave of structural demand. Because the broader market regime is still bearish, the 1-to-3 month realized price band (76k-86k) will act as a hard ceiling where trapped short-term buyers will sell to break even. WATCH. Traders should monitor the 76k-86k resistance zone to take profits or hedge long exposure, anticipating a macro bear market rejection at those levels. If the CryptoQuant Bull Score index rapidly spikes above 60, it would signal a regime change from a bear to a bull market, likely causing BTC to break cleanly through the 76k-86k resistance.
BTC WATCH
short-term
You see this in the last few weeks how it went from really negative levels extremely negative and it went up to even is positive right now. They stopped selling basically the US and that drives prices higher relative to prices in other exchanges. The Coinbase premium flipping positive, combined with on-chain data showing Bitcoin flowing from offshore exchanges into Coinbase to capture arbitrage, indicates a resurgence of US-based spot demand. This localized spike in trading volume and liquidity directly translates to higher transaction fee revenue for Coinbase. LONG. The short-term return of US buyer appetite provides a tactical tailwind for Coinbase's core exchange business during this relief rally. In a bear market regime, positive Coinbase premiums are historically temporary. If the premium flips negative again, it signals that US demand has evaporated, removing the volume catalyst for the stock.
COIN LONG
short-term
18:45
Mar 12
Mar 12
Milk Road Daily
2mo
USO
GLD
HYPE 1ST
BTC
▾
"I think anything with relatively constrained supply can trade like a memecoin when it gets the attention economy focused on it and you have easy ways to get leverage." As traditional commodities like oil become tokenized and traded on 24/7 crypto rails, they are exposed to the crypto ecosystem's high embedded leverage and low weekend liquidity. This combination creates the perfect storm for violent, cascading liquidations and massive price gaps by the time traditional markets open on Monday. WATCH. Traditional commodity markets will experience increased volatility and "memecoin-like" squeezes due to the new dynamic of 24/7 leveraged on-chain trading. Liquidity on decentralized platforms remains too low to actually impact the global spot price of massive commodities like oil over the long term.
USO WATCH
short-term
"They're both [Bitcoin and Gold] providing the same service, which is the ability to store wealth outside of the fiat system without relying on a central bank or a government." The overarching macro environment features persistent government deficit spending, inflation, and institutional distrust. This expands the total market for hard assets. Gold is not being entirely replaced by Bitcoin; rather, both will grow in nominal terms as fiat currencies lose purchasing power. LONG. Gold remains a premier, institutionally accepted hedge against fiat debasement and geopolitical instability. Central banks drastically raise real rates and balance budgets, restoring absolute faith in fiat currencies and crushing demand for non-yielding assets.
GLD LONG
long-term
"When the US started bombing Iran... every market around the world is closed... And so what people did is they shifted onto Hyperliquid. And that's where they were trading oil." Traditional finance operates on a 5-day, limited-hour schedule, leaving them exposed to weekend geopolitical shocks. Because decentralized exchanges operate 24/7, macro hedge funds will be forced to onboard onto platforms like Hyperliquid to hedge their real-world asset exposure (like oil) during off-hours, driving massive institutional volume and user growth to the protocol. LONG. Hyperliquid has a first-mover advantage in capturing institutional weekend trading volume for tokenized real-world assets. Traditional exchanges eventually upgrade their infrastructure to offer 24/7 trading, or regulatory crackdowns prevent TradFi funds from using offshore/decentralized perpetual futures platforms.
HYPE LONG
medium-term
"If you assume the store of value market that's captured by gold and Bitcoin will continue to grow as it has for the last 20 years, then all that Bitcoin needs to do to become worth a million dollars is take 17% of the market." Just as the 2004 Gold ETF unlocked institutional capital and drove gold from a $2.5T to a $40T market, the recent Bitcoin ETFs will legitimize BTC for institutions. As fiat currencies debase, the total addressable market for non-sovereign stores of value expands, allowing BTC to reach $1M without needing to fully replace gold. LONG. Bitcoin is positioned for massive long-term appreciation as it takes a modest market share of an expanding global store-of-value pie. Governments stop deficit spending (unlikely), a new technological variant displaces Bitcoin for the next generation, or quantum computing breaks its cryptography.
BTC LONG
long-term
18:45
Mar 11
Mar 11
Milk Road Daily
2mo
ETH 1ST
SOL 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
"There's 30 plus trillion dollars in the financial advisor world. So even a 1% allocation from all of them is going to be absolutely massive to this space." Wealth management platforms are slowly approving spot crypto ETFs for use in model portfolios. As financial advisors systematically allocate 1-5% of client portfolios to these assets, it creates a massive, sticky structural bid. Furthermore, advisors rebalance periodically, meaning they will automatically "buy the dip" during crypto market drawdowns, providing long-term price support that the spot market previously lacked. LONG. The integration of blue-chip crypto into traditional finance portfolios via ETFs transforms BTC and ETH from purely speculative assets into structurally supported portfolio components. A severe macroeconomic recession could force advisors to liquidate risk assets across the board, or legacy "OG" crypto holders could dump spot inventory faster than ETF inflows can absorb it.
ETH LONG
BTC LONG
long-term
"The adoption from 13F filers for the Salana ETFs is actually extremely high we know 50% of the holders as of the end of December... which means a lot of institutions probably back these ETFs." High 13F ownership indicates that "smart money" (crypto hedge funds and institutional asset managers) are using the ETF wrapper to build high-conviction, long-term positions in Solana. Unlike retail-heavy assets (like XRP), institutional holders are less likely to panic-sell during volatility, providing a stronger floor for the asset's price and validating its institutional product-market fit. LONG. Solana's heavy institutional backing in the ETF market signals strong fundamental conviction, making it a premium play over retail-dominated altcoins. A portion of these 13F filings may belong to market makers (like Jane Street or Virtu) who are delta-hedged rather than directionally long, meaning the actual institutional "buy-and-hold" demand could be overstated.
SOL LONG
medium-term
19:44
Mar 10
Mar 10
Milk Road Daily
2mo
XRP 1ST
SOL 1ST
HYPE 1ST
BTC 1ST
ETH 1ST
▾
"Things that are worse for the dollar are going to be good for digital assets especially digital assets that can be used as transactional rails like Salana and Ripple." As geopolitical instability rises and confidence in the US dollar wanes in certain regions, capital in conflict zones actively seeks alternative, non-sovereign payment rails. Networks specifically designed for high-speed, low-cost cross-border transactions will capture this capital flight and see a surge in network utility and fee generation. LONG established transactional rail tokens serving as direct alternatives to traditional fiat payment systems. Fiat-backed stablecoins (like USDC or USDT) may capture the vast majority of this transactional volume, leaving the native network tokens with minimal value accrual.
XRP LONG
medium-term
"I would have the same concept of like L1 as a core, maybe a couple different L1s as cores. These are the really the main networks that I have high confidence in. And then I create satellites of the L2s that are more risky." Institutions are moving away from treating all crypto as a single, highly correlated monolith. By applying traditional portfolio construction frameworks (core-satellite) to digital assets, major Layer-1 networks will receive the bulk of sticky, institutional "core" allocations, driving sustained capital inflows and reducing their historical volatility. LONG major Layer-1 networks as foundational, institutional-grade portfolio assets. A failure of institutional adoption to materialize at scale, or severe macroeconomic shocks that force institutions to liquidate their core crypto holdings.
SOL LONG
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
long-term
"If you want to trade like I guess oil futures or oil derivatives you can do that all weekend long if you want on a place like hyperlquid... 3 or 4% of the global volume of silver trade was on hyperlquid." Traditional financial markets close on weekends, leaving traders paralyzed and unable to hedge or react to major geopolitical events (like weekend military strikes). Decentralized perpetual exchanges solve this by offering 24/7 price discovery and liquidity, meaning they will inevitably siphon massive trading volume and market share away from legacy derivative exchanges. LONG decentralized perpetual exchanges that are successfully listing real-world assets and commodities. Aggressive regulatory crackdowns by the CFTC or SEC against unlicensed on-chain derivative platforms offering commodities to US retail traders.
HYPE LONG
medium-term
18:45
Mar 09
Mar 09
Milk Road Daily
2mo
SOL 1ST
JUP 1ST
BTC 1ST
HYPE
▾
I think the most surprising thing is how much divergence there is between Salana's usage and Salana's price as a token. Two billion transactions in February. Salana made like $26 million in network revenue. The market is currently pricing the asset based on macro fear and past cycle biases, ignoring its transition into a cash-flowing, high-utility infrastructure layer. Once global macro headwinds clear, the valuation will re-rate to reflect its fundamental revenue and stablecoin dominance. LONG because the fundamental business metrics are growing rapidly while the token price remains artificially depressed by external macro factors. A prolonged global macro downturn or escalating war could keep all risk assets depressed regardless of strong on-chain fundamentals.
SOL LONG
medium-term
We are one of the very few tokens that does not have any kind of net new emissions coming to market for the foreseeable future. 50% of our revenues, our onchain revenues go to buybacks right now. Crypto tokens typically suffer from constant downward price pressure due to VC unlocks and airdrop emissions. By eliminating new emissions and using actual protocol revenue to aggressively buy back tokens, Jupiter is creating a deflationary supply shock that will drive the price up as retail demand returns. LONG due to a massive structural shift in tokenomics, combining high protocol revenue with aggressive buybacks and zero new supply. The complexity of adding too many products to their super-app model could alienate users, reducing overall platform volume and buyback revenue.
JUP LONG
long-term
If the economy starts to go bad then the Fed has to print, then monetary policy has to loosen which actually means more capital flowing to risk on assets like crypto. Geopolitical conflict and economic instability act as a forcing function for central bank liquidity injections. This fiat debasement directly benefits hard, capped-supply assets as investors seek hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. LONG as a macro play on inevitable central bank easing and global liquidity expansion. The Fed could choose to keep rates elevated if the war causes a severe spike in oil prices, reigniting inflation and delaying rate cuts.
BTC LONG
medium-term
Hyperliquid, absolute killers. But we have Jupet coming up in the very near future, an omni chain liquidity hub that is purpose-built for order book trading of spot perps. Hyperliquid has enjoyed a dominant, uncontested position in the on-chain perpetuals market, but Jupiter is launching a direct, well-resourced competitor aimed at the exact same sophisticated trader demographic. This will likely fragment market share and compress fee revenues. WATCH to see if Hyperliquid's market share and volume take a hit once Jupiter's competing order book product goes live. Hyperliquid's user base and liquidity network effects may be too sticky, rendering Jupiter's new product unable to capture meaningful market share.
HYPE WATCH
short-term
14:00
Mar 08
Mar 08
Milk Road Daily
2mo
SOL
COIN
ZEC
BLK
BTC
▾
Pal discusses "high velocity, massive use case markets" and notes that "memecoins... drove a lot of value in itself to Solana." He later emphasizes that AI agents will need rails for micropayments (sub-cent) which stablecoins cannot handle. Solana's architecture is designed for high-velocity, low-cost transactions. If AI agents and high-frequency tokenized markets (futures, equities) move on-chain, they require a high-throughput chain like Solana rather than a store-of-value chain like Bitcoin. Long Solana as the infrastructure play for high-velocity economic activity and AI agent commerce. Network outages or centralization concerns; competition from other high-performance L1s (e.g., Sui, Aptos).
SOL WATCH
medium-term
Pal mentions "Asset management industry coming into this space," "Banks coming into this space," and the tokenization of equities, fixed income, and futures. While Pal describes the trend, the direct beneficiaries in the equity market are the infrastructure providers. BlackRock (BLK) is leading the tokenization effort (BUIDL fund), and Coinbase (COIN) provides the custody and exchange rails for these institutions. Long the "picks and shovels" of institutional adoption. Regulatory hurdles for US banks holding crypto; fee compression in the ETF/custody space.
COIN WATCH
BLK WATCH
long-term
When discussing the "anti-rebellion" and privacy against institutions, Pal explicitly says: "Privacy... that's the other one, right? Zcash, that's a big fight to come." As the financial system becomes transparent and on-chain (tokenization), there will be a counter-demand for privacy and anonymity. Zcash is the specific asset named to capture this "rebellion" value. Long Zcash as a contrarian hedge against total financial surveillance. Severe regulatory risk (delistings) as governments generally oppose privacy coins.
ZEC WATCH
medium-term
Pal states that using a log regression channel based on Metcalfe's Law (network adoption), the crypto market cap is projected to reach "$100 trillion by 2032, 2034." He notes Bitcoin is now accepted as "collateral" by the traditional system. Bitcoin is the primary asset driving this regression channel. As the "pristine collateral" of this new system, it captures the majority of the store-of-value premium as institutions and banks enter the space. Long-term accumulation of Bitcoin is the safest play to capture the secular trend. Regulatory crackdowns or a breakdown in the log regression model (adoption stalls).
BTC WATCH
long-term
14:00
Mar 07
Mar 07
Milk Road Daily
2mo
CME
META
BLK
HOOD
COIN
▾
The Chair of the CFTC stated prediction markets are acceptable, and "now the CME is building prediction markets." Prediction markets have historically been niche/crypto-native (Polymarket). The entry of a regulated, institutional giant like CME legitimizes the asset class and opens it to institutional capital, turning it into a "multi-trillion dollar market." LONG. CME captures a new revenue stream from a completely new asset class that regulators have just de-risked. Regulatory reversal or lack of liquidity in institutional prediction markets.
CME LONG
medium-term
Meta is rolling out stablecoins to its massive installed user base (half the world). While they may not displace Circle (USDC) as the backend issuer, Meta will likely "carve out a decent chunk of the payments market" simply due to distribution. If stablecoins become the backend for everyday apps, Meta monetizes the transaction flow. LONG. A play on the "Agentic Economy" and mass adoption of crypto rails without users knowing they are using crypto. Meta has a history of failed crypto ventures (Libra/Diem) and burning capital on R&D.
META WATCH
medium-term
Hougan highlights that Larry Fink (CEO of BlackRock) is explicitly saying "every asset will be tokenized." BlackRock manages $10+ trillion. When the world's largest asset manager commits to a technological shift (tokenization of RWAs), they become the primary issuer and fee-collector of these new digital assets. They are driving the transition from a $20B market to a $200T market. LONG. Betting on the firm that is actively engineering the financial migration to blockchain. Institutional adoption moves slower than expected ("it always takes longer").
BLK LONG
long-term
Hougan suggests that Meta's entry into crypto/finance is "more of a challenge to wallets... and maybe brokerage apps eventually like Robinhood." If social media giants (Meta/X) integrate seamless payments and investing (stablecoins/tokenized assets), standalone retail brokerages like Robinhood lose their "convenience" moat. WATCH (Potential Short/Avoid). The convergence of social apps and finance threatens pure-play retail brokerages. Robinhood has a loyal user base and is expanding internationally/into crypto itself, which may defend its turf.
HOOD WATCH
long-term
Hougan argues that Coinbase has a "unique advantage" because the hostile regulatory environment prevented natural competitors from building up. He notes, "There's no reason that Coinbase should have the market share it has... well-funded competitors were hard to come by." Usually, high margins attract competition (like Schwab vs. Fidelity). However, regulation acted as a barrier to entry, gifting Coinbase a monopoly-like position ("Regulatory Moat"). Additionally, Coinbase is integrated with Circle (stablecoins) and has "turned on stock trading," positioning it as the "super app" regulators asked for. LONG. Coinbase is the primary infrastructure beneficiary of the "everything tokenized" thesis and retains sticky market share due to high barriers to entry. Regulatory clarity could eventually lower barriers to entry, inviting cheaper competitors to erode margins.
COIN LONG
long-term
19:45
Mar 04
Mar 04
Milk Road Daily
3mo
V 1ST
HOOD 1ST
COIN 1ST
DKNG 1ST
MS 1ST
▾
Schmidt argues that AI agents (autonomous software) need to make payments but cannot get credit cards or bank accounts. He states stablecoins are the "perfect fit" for these micro-transactions and cross-border API calls. If AI agents proliferate, transaction volume on stablecoin rails will explode. Coinbase (via USDC partnership), PayPal (PYUSD), and Visa (integrating stablecoin settlement) are the primary regulated infrastructure providers that will capture fees from this new "machine economy" volume. LONG. These companies own the "rails" for the next generation of automated B2B/B2C payments. Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoin issuance or the development of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that bypasses private issuers.
V LONG
COIN LONG
PYPL LONG
medium-term
Schmidt discusses the explosion of prediction markets (like Poly Market), noting that volume is sticky even post-election because users are trading sports and pop culture events. While Poly Market is offshore/crypto-native, the demand for "event contracts" is proving to be massive. Robinhood (HOOD) recently launched prediction markets for US customers, and DraftKings (DKNG) operates in the adjacent sports betting vertical. These regulated US entities will capture the onshore demand for this market structure. LONG. Betting on the "gamification" of financial events and the legalization of prediction markets in the US. The CFTC could ban event contracts in the US, forcing this volume back to offshore/crypto-native platforms.
HOOD LONG
DKNG LONG
short-term
Schmidt notes that the industry is "growing up," citing that "BlackRock is here, Fidelity is here, and Morgan Stanley just came out pivoting their whole roadmap into crypto." This is no longer a retail speculation game; it is an institutional asset class. BlackRock (ETFs/Tokenization) and Morgan Stanley (Wealth Management/Custody) are positioning themselves to earn fees on the securitization and custody of digital assets for the wealthy. LONG. These incumbents will capture the "safe" yield and management fees as crypto becomes a standard portfolio allocation. continued regulatory hostility or a catastrophic failure of a major custodian that scares institutions away.
MS LONG
BLK LONG
long-term
Schmidt highlights a portfolio company (Exo) that enables distributed inference by sharding models across local devices. He explicitly mentions using "Apple Mac Studios, Mac Minis, and iPhones" because new open-source models can run locally on high-end consumer chips. As AI models become efficient enough to run on "edge" devices (to avoid censorship or cloud costs), demand for high-performance consumer hardware with strong neural engines (like Apple Silicon) increases. Apple becomes the hardware layer for decentralized AI. LONG. Apple is the "pick and shovel" play for local/edge AI inference. Open-source models failing to catch up to closed-source giant models (OpenAI/Google), rendering local compute irrelevant.
AAPL LONG
long-term
15:45
Mar 03
Mar 03
Milk Road Daily
3mo
XHB
SLX
AQWA 1ST
IBIT
XLE
▾
"Housing is a big recent addition... housing is definitely going to see a resurgence in demand." This is a second-order effect of the Bond trade. As the economy slows (Quad 4), bond yields crash. Lower yields mean lower mortgage rates, which immediately stimulates housing demand despite the broader economic slowdown. Long Homebuilders as a rate-sensitive proxy. If yields stay high (Quad 3 persists), housing remains under pressure.
XHB WATCH
ITB WATCH
Medium-term
"We're long steel stocks... We're long water. I think water is a big idea long term." Despite the tech selloff, "unexciting" cyclical and thematic trades are working. The speaker explicitly names Steel and the Water ETF (AQWA) as current long positions based on his signals. Long Niche Real Assets. Global industrial slowdown hurting steel demand.
SLX WATCH
AQWA LONG
Long-term
"It's down 45%... that is a crash... inviting Wall Street to their party was one of the biggest mistakes." Institutional adoption marked the cycle top. The asset is in a downtrend (crash mode). The speaker emphasizes he is not "faith-based" and the current signal is bearish/broken. Avoid or Short Bitcoin until the signal reverses. A sudden sentiment shift or regulatory catalyst sparking a rally.
IBIT AVOID
BITO AVOID
Short-term
"As long as my signal says buy every damn dip in oil, I'm going to buy every damn dip in oil." The market front-ran the geopolitical escalation (US-Israel/Iran). Oil is breaking out technically, regardless of the specific news cycle. In a Quad 3 (current state) environment, energy is a top performer. Continue buying oil and energy equities on pullbacks. A sudden geopolitical resolution or demand collapse in deep Quad 4.
XLE WATCH
USO LONG
Short-term
"The things that do well [in Quad 4] are gold, bonds, and utilities." As the economy enters a deflationary slowdown (Quad 4), investors flee to safety and yield. Utilities (bond proxies) and Gold (store of value/currency hedge) historically outperform when growth collapses. Long Defensive Sectors and Precious Metals. Rising real rates (if inflation falls faster than nominal yields).
XLU LONG
GLD LONG
Medium-term
"We're short what we call Moab tech... mother of all bubbles... revenue growth rate slows." Software companies (like Salesforce/CRM) and Hyperscalers (like Microsoft/MSFT) are seeing revenue deceleration. The "AI narrative" is insufficient to prop up valuations when growth slows. The speaker explicitly mentions being short "all four" hyperscalers and software. Short Tech and Software as the bubble deflates. Re-acceleration of revenue growth or a Fed pivot sparking a liquidity rally.
MSFT NEUTRAL
CRM NEUTRAL
IGV NEUTRAL
XLK NEUTRAL
Medium-term
"We are going into Quad 4 in the second quarter... the best time to be long long-term Treasuries." Quad 4 is a deflationary recession environment. As growth and inflation decelerate simultaneously, the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively. The speaker predicts the 10-year yield could fall to 3.25% (down ~100bps). Long duration bonds are the highest conviction trade for Q2 2026. Inflation re-accelerates (staying in Quad 3) rather than cooling off.
TLT LONG
Medium-term (Q2 Outlook)
"Japan... exports just went from essentially flatlining... to up 16.8% year-over-year." While the US is slowing, Japan is in "Global Quad 1" (Growth accelerating). The massive jump in exports signals a cyclical recovery in the Japanese economy, making it a divergence play against the US. Long Japanese Equities. Currency volatility (Yen fluctuations) impacting returns.
EWJ LONG
Medium-term
"Quad 3 means short the financials... If you're still long like JP Morgan... we're short those." In a stagflationary (Quad 3) or recessionary (Quad 4) environment, credit risk rises and yield curves behave unfavorably for bank margins. Financials are explicitly named as a sector to short. Short large-cap financials. A "soft landing" where credit quality remains pristine.
XLF NEUTRAL
JPM NEUTRAL
Short-term to Medium-term
14:01
Mar 01
Mar 01
Milk Road Daily
3mo
SPY
MAGS
QQQ
▾
The S&P 500 is currently "still rising" with price above the 20, 50, and 150-day moving averages. Vermeulen states, "We're still long... until proven wrong." However, the S&P 500 typically follows the Nasdaq. With the Nasdaq already in a downtrend and a "20% crash" predicted due to an economic reset, the S&P is the last domino standing. The trade is to wait for the S&P to break its trendline (like the Nasdaq did) to confirm the "Stage 4 decline." WATCH. Remain Long only as long as the uptrend holds, but prepare to exit or flip Short immediately upon a trend break, as a "precipitous fall" is expected. Selling too early while the "rising tide" is still technically intact.
SPY WATCH
Medium-term
The "MAGS" ETF (Magnificent 7) has explicitly "broken this support level... to the downside with strong volume." Similarly, the Nasdaq is now making "lower highs and lower lows," which is the technical definition of a downtrend, and has been rejected at resistance. The "Mag 7" act as the market's heavyweight boxers; where they go, the indices follow. Since the leaders (MAGS) have already broken down, the broader tech index (Nasdaq) is confirming the weakness. This weakness in the leaders signals the "AI bubble" is beginning to unfold, and capital is fleeing the sector. SHORT. The trend in Tech has reversed from up to down. The "Buy the Dip" dynamic is invalid here as the structure has broken. The S&P 500 is still holding up; if the broad market refuses to roll over, tech could see a dead-cat bounce before the drop.
MAGS NEUTRAL
QQQ NEUTRAL
Short-term to Medium-term
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